How Richard Coleman became a leader in hockey analytics (part 1)
(After scoring a goal PPG Paints Arena, home for the Penguins)
NHL Career-
I, Richard Coleman, had no idea for most of my life that I would have a career in the NHL doing hockey analytics. It all started around 2004. I had recently sold my Coleman Consulting Group business, which needed to be fixed. I spent a lot of time going to baseball games. I lived across the street from the San Francisco Giants home stadium, Pac Bell, and went to many games with season tickets. I noticed that the usage of baseball relief pitchers was very standard; no matter what the score was, a "setup" man usually pitched the 8th inning, and the "closer" came in to pitch the 9th. In January 2004, I made a New Year's resolution to work in professional sports within two years.
Thus, I did a research paper on using relief pitchers and showed that teams could win 2 to 4 extra games a season by moving from the traditional closer strategy to using a "relief ace" strategy I outlined. The new system was based on a computer program that determined the odds of winning the game at every point throughout the match and also indicated how the odds would change if the next batter made an out. I called this a high-pressure (critical) moment when the odds changed dramatically if the next out was made. The recommendation was to use the top reliever on a club during high-pressure situations regardless of what inning it was and not use them in low-leverage cases where the next out made little difference.
The research paper took about three months to complete. When it was finished, I sent it to 3 prominent league managers by federal express. The very next day, I got a phone call from the manager of the Boston Red Sox, a champion team that was one of the first clubs to use analytics. Terry Franconia was on the line, and he said," are you the guy who wrote this relief pitcher paper?" I was thrilled to receive this call and, a few days later, based on his invitation, arrived at Fort Meyers, where the Red Sox were holding spring training. I had made many presentations as a management consultant in the previous 20 years, but this was my first to a sports team. The meeting was very, very informal! I was sitting at his desk in the middle of a locker room with half-dressed players coming in and out with phone calls interrupting (Johnny Damon calling in to ask if he could have the day off….yes, said the manager). I presented a series of PowerPoint slides by hand. Franconia was very challenging. I would explain my strategy for using each relief pitcher on his team, and he would fire back that the players would not like that, they want specific roles, etc. I tried to define what a high-pressure moment was mathematical. He said:" I'll tell you what high pressure is when we lose four games in a row at home and the press is clamoring." At one point (using the Columbo close), I said, "well, maybe this won't work for your club ." He then perked up, said he was testing me and was very interested in moving forward. Eventually, we set up a weekly phone call/email exchange for the regular season where I would review his use of relief pitchers for that week and make suggestions and how their usage could have been optimized. I tried to turn this into a paid consulting project with the Red Sox, but the general manager declined. Meanwhile, I worked with Franconia for an entire season, including the playoffs.
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